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Here’s a tactical recap of today’s 1500m heats.

Race videos

I haven’t yet located good race videos.

Analyses

Heat 1

The most important tactical lessons in a slow first heat come from two masters of 1500m tactics, Centrowitz and Makhloufi. Let’s see what they did.

Both Centrowitz and Makhloufi get a fairly quick start to the front but allow the fastest inside starter to take the lead. Mahkloufi falls back to a yellow position when Centrowitz past him. The pace is slow, so many athletes from the green queue move forward on each straight, as they should. When Mechaal overtakes Centrowitz at the 500m mark Centrowitz doesn’t fight back because it might force him to take the lead. Centrowitz falls back to first position in the yellow queue, which drops Makhloufi one step further back. Makhloufi was previously running behind a favorite, but now that favorite is stuck behind an underdog. Makhloufi doesn’t like it and immediately starts to make his way outward toward the green queue with a little bit of pushing.

Grice moves past Makhloufi just before the 700-800 bend, but Makhloufi counters by overtaking Grice in the bend. The pace picks up a little bit but is still only about 15 seconds / 100m, so he doesn’t waste much energy in doing so. Centrowitz fell back deliberately on the 600-700 in order to move back to the green queue and he also goes a long way out in the 700-800 bend where he follows Makhloufi.

The surge stage now begins and neither Centrowitz nor Makhloufi intend to give their green positions now. Wolde tries to overtake Centrowitz on the 1000-1100 straight but Centrowitz quickly moves forward to prevent it and overtakes Hiss Bachir while doing so. Makhloufi recognizes that opponents are moving up quickly on the outside and accelerates together with the leader Manangoi. After that it’s an open sprint for Makhloufi and Centrowitz and they easily secure qualification.

There sprint is surprisingly much room in the sprint even for the athletes who start from the back of the group. Especially Bensghir gets lucky on the final straight when both Wolde and Hiss Bachir fade away, which opens a clear path for him on the inside. Bensghir was in 13th position at the 1300m mark. This once again shows that there’s always hope in a middle distance sprint as long as you have enough energy for one more acceleration.

Heat 2

Kiprop has made his share of tactical mistakes in the past, but in this race his strategy is exactly right. He stays clear of trouble at the back, knowing that he only needs to move up to sixth position in order to qualify.

It’s interesting to see how some of the other semifinal qualifiers ran this race. The favorite Wote set the pace up front and easily kept everyone at bay until the finish. The underdog Hannes started following Wote when the took the lead at 300m and benefited greatly from his pacemaking and effective sprint. Musagala could also have followed stayed behind Wote but was far too passive and fell back when opponents overtook him in the green queue.

Manzano stayed in the green queue the entire way and covered quite a bit of extra distance. It looks like he has to work really hard in the final sprint, so he might have to prioritize energy saving rather than control in the semifinals. And finally, Matthews is boxed close to the back of the red queue for almost the entire race, but just manages to sprint into the top six. Matthews also benefited from Wote’s pacemaking work because any lead changes up front would have dropped him further back in the red queue and probably forced him to move into the green queue and take on extra distance at some point.

Heat 3

The athletes in heat 3 presumably knew that the fastest lsoer from the previous two heats ran 3.40, so with a little bit of teamwork 12 of them should easily have been able to qualify. Perhaps language barriers prevented them from coming to mutual agreement before the race because since there wasn’t much margin for error at the end, but 11 athletes still qualified for the next stage. In other words, there would not be much point in analyzing race tactics in this heat.

Here’s a tactical recap of today’s 1500m  and 800m finals.

Race videos

Women 1500m final

Men 800m final

Analyses

Women 1500m

I didn’t expect this to be a very tactical race because the two favorites Hassan and Dibaba had both shown a preference for long 500m sprints in the heats and semifinals. In a 500m sprint everyone has plenty of time to make full use of their remaining energy reserves, so it doesn’t actually matter much if one starts the sprint from a red position or a green one.

Still, the jog started so slowly that this actually seemed like a tactical race for awhile. The most interesting tactical observation is that Hassan was from the start completely oblivious to where Dibaba was and what she was doing. Hassan has the chance to start following on Dibaba’s heels immediately after the start, but instead she opts to stay in lane 1 while Dibaba wisely moves a little bit further out.

As they go through the first lap in 1.17 Hassan still doesn’t realize that she could just as well run this slowly on the outside. When Dibaba moves forward after the 600m mark Hassan still jogs along in lane 1 without a care in the world. Perhaps Hassan thought Dibaba wouldn’t start her sprint until the 1000m mark. She now has to work her way past ten opponents at high speed, which certainly must have been a costly exercise.

As for the other athletes, Dibaba’s move to the front pretty nullifies their tactics as they do an all-out 800m sprint. Many of them were more alert to Dibaba’s movements than Hassan, but the only one who was able to benefit from this tactical alertness was Kipyegon, who saves more energy and is able to overtake Hassan on the final straight.

Men 800m

As expected Tuka willingly stays behind and takes the last place in the start. Rudisha leads the first lap in 54 seconds, a very sensible pace. As I mentioned in my semifinals recap, a faster pace would have made it easier for Tuka to move up on the second lap. At the 500m mark Rudisha does make a mistake by not accelerating immediately. His reluctance to accelerate almost gives Tuka the opportunity to overtake the entire group and move to the front, but the athletes stuck behind Rudisha coax him to start a full sprint just in time to leave Tuka a few meters behind, which was enough for Rudisha to secure victory on the final straight. Ksczczot patiently waits behind Rudisha in lane 1 in the sprint, which probably saves his silver medal. Any attempt to move outward in the sprint would have dropped him back to third.

As for the other athletes, Bosse clearly makes error on the 300-400 straight as he lets Ksczczot pass him on the inside. Ksczczot follows Rudisha from there and earns himself the silver while Bosse remains behind Ksczczot the entire way. Bosse should have recognized that he will be able to sprint effectively from lane 1 if his right behind Rudisha. He had no reason to move towards lane 2 at the end of the first lap.

Here’s a tactical recap of yesterday’s 1500m semifinals.

Race videos

Semifinal 1

Semifinal 2

Analyses

Semifinal 1

Hassan performs a very curious start as she deliberately pushes into lane 1 and gets stuck in a red position. I wonder why she prefers so strongly to be in a red position when she could easily have taken a green one instead. It will be interesting to see if she makes the same mistake in the final.

The pace is very slow, but nobody moves in the first lap of the jog stage. On the 600-700 straight Sado takes the free pass to the front of the green queue which was on offer. It’s worth noting how easily she overtakes the entire group. Seyaum could easily have follower her compatriot to the front, but decides to stay at the back of the green queue instead. On the 800-900 Sado does not protect her position against Aregawi and Rowbury, which is clearly a mistake the surge is just about to begin. Sado would probably had fared better in the sprint if she has just taken the lead at this point.

The underdog Ennaoui has led the entire way and is clearly disadvantaged when the surge begins. The athletes in red positions behind her have to maneuver past her on the straight, but everyone manages to do so surprisingly easily. There’s a lot of lateral movement on the 1000-1100 straight as Hassan initiates her sprint and everyone gets set to follow her. Hassan actually had to slow down and lengthen the gap to the group ahead of her before she had enough space to move outward. This is an inefficient tactic and she clearly needs to find her way to a green position in the final.

With the favorite now in the lead, everyone accelerates to follow her. Gallagher moves out and actually overtakes the entire group in the 1100-1200 bend! She’s almost out in lane 3, so she probably runs 5 meters further in the bend than her opponents on the outside. Needless to say, that’s a costly way to sprint and she pays the price in the final 200. Sado gets held up by Gallagher in the 1300-1400 bend, but Akkaoui performs a very good sprint in the inside lane. She illustrates well how much benefit a little bit of saved energy can bring on the final straight.

Semifinal 2

Simpson nicely avoids taking the lead in the start as she leaves just enough room for Koster to come through on the inside as they enter the bend. Just like in the first semifinal, the field of athletes is quite static in the first lap of the jog stage. On the 600-700 straight Muir makes a good move forward just like Sado did in the previous race.

Terzic, Cichocka and Simpson then challenge Muir in the green queue on the 800-900 straight. Simpson is a bit passive when she lets Terzic, Cichocka overtake her and she actually works her way past them both in the 900-1000 bend. Dibaba initiates the sprint on the 1000-1100 straight and there’s no tactics in this race after that.

Looking ahead to the final, both favorites Dibaba and Hassan like to stay at the back of the pack and accelerate strongly at the 1000m mark. If they follow the same strategy in the final there won’t be much need for tactics because the race will be a high-speed open sprint over the final 500m. For the other athletes this means that positions won’t be particularly important. During the surge athletes in red positions do not have to worry about their position because they know that the group will break apart soon after the 1000m mark. 500m is a long sprint distance and there will be plenty of time to catch opponents on the final lap. So an energy-conserving tactic in lane 1 might earn someone a bronze medal. The two favorites will probably escape regardless of all tactics.

Here’s a tactical recap of today’s 800m semifinals.

Race videos

Semifinal 1

Semifinal 2

Semifinal 3

Analyses

Semifinal 1

The outside starters find positions on the outside of the group as expected. No time for tactical positioning in such a fast start. Inside starter Murphy ends up in lane 1 behind both favorites Ksczczot and Aman, which has to be a good place for an underdog. He still rushes to an outside position at the 300m mark. This is clearly a mistake, not only because he disrupts his own rhythm when moving out, but because he sets himself an impossible task. There’s no way that he will be able to out-sprint the likes of Ksczczot, Aman and Bosse after taking on more distance than them in a fast race.

Kupers makes the sprint interesting by accelerating the 500m point. When Ksczczot responds strongly, the other runners behind them are clearly at risk of being stuck behind the underdog Kupers as Ksczczot escapes. Aman does everything right thing by keeping the gap to Ksczczot as short as it can be. Yet by sticking his shoulder into the gap that Aman was protecting, Kupers still manages to move in front of Aman and leave him boxed. After tussling with Kupers Aman just narrowly manages to move past him in the curve and sprint effectively to the finish, but he gets disqualified.

It is difficult to see what Aman could have done differently. He doesn’t have a free route outward at any point on the back straight. The race illustrates how difficult to keep gaps closed and prevent lateral movement at high speeds. Gaps naturally become longer when everyone lengthens their stride, which makes sideways movement easier.

Semifinal 2

This was an interesting tactical race. Rudisha wants to take the lead in the start and the other athletes compete for the spot behind him. Al-Deraan does a nice tactical job on the inside as he keeps an eye on everyone to his right and accelerates enough to keep Amos behind him and move in behind Rudisha.

So Al-Deraan is in excellent position after the start, but he runs a bit lazily at the 400m mark and leaves a bigger gap to the leader than he should have. Balla moves into this like Kupers did in the previous heat, only the pace is much slower now so Al-Deraan should have been able to close the gap more effectively. Balla keeps his position behind Rudisha all the way to the finish line and qualifies for the final, so moving in behind the favorite was clearly a good tactic.

It’s interesting to see what happens on the outside in the sprint. The race has been slow, so everyone should know how important it is not to lose positions in the first sprint on the 500-600 straight. Yet Tolokonnikov easily both Gakeme and Amos without any resistance. This is clearly where Amos loses the race. He should have moved outward and accelerated when he saw Tolokonnikov coming up to his shoulder.

Amos gets a second chance because Tolokonnikov immediately makes the same mistake that Amos made a few seconds before! Despite clearly having much energy left Tolokonnikov inexplicably allows Amos overtake him in the bend without resisting or moving outward at all. Amos makes the most of the chance that Tolokonnikov grants him, but it isn’t enough. He wasted too much energy when he forced to overtake Tolokonnikov in the bend.

The reason why both Tolokonnikov and Amos seem to reluctant to accelerate appears to be that they overtake each other before Rudisha has actually started sprinting in earnest, so the pace set by the leaders isn’t close to full speed. But neither Tolokonnikov nor Amos should have been reluctant to start their full-speed sprint immediately when their position in the green queue was threatened.

Semifinal 3

This race was the least tactical of the three semifinals. Lewandowski decides to move out and overtake one opponent just before the 400m point, and it’s probably a good tactical decision considering how many underdogs or average contestants were lined up in front of him. He performs a good sprint and came very close to qualifying for the final as one of the two fastest losers.

Tuka’s sprint was effective again. He has openly declared that he does not bother much with strategy and tactics since, he just sprints from the back. In the final the best strategy for athletes like Ksczczot and Rudisha against Tuka would probably be to keep the pace relatively slow. In the final Tuka it will be harder for Tuka to overtake others on the back straight than in the semifinal, so the odds are that he will get stuck behind someone in the final bend. This would allow Ksczczot and Rudisha to escape so far that Tuka can’t catch them before the finish. If the pace is fast it becomes easier for Tuka to improve his position gradually throughout the second lap. He has shown that he can sprint very effectively even when the pace is fast.

Here’s a tactical recap of the 800m heats which ended a moment ago.

Race videos

Heat 1

Heat 2

Heat 3

Heat 4

Heat 5

Heat 6

Analyses

Heat 1

Gakeme was not quite sure what he wanted to do in this heat. He was slow in the first 100 and moved to the inside lane at the 200m mark. This isn’t a bad place to be in a heat with only seven runners, but he made a very badly timed move outward at the 400m mark and ran the entire 400-500 bend in lane 2 for no gain at all. He still made his way into the top three, but could have done it with less work. Amos ran a much smarter race, waiting in the green queue like a favorite should and picking off opponents one by one in the sprint.

Heat 2

It looked like Aman would be stuck in the box for the first lap, but he wisely utilized an open gap on the 300-400 straight to move outward. Langford is the athlete who left the gap open in the green queue, as he inexplicably fell back two steps in the queue on the 300-400 straight for no apparent reason.

Bosse seemed to track Aman on the final lap, which is no doubt a good tactic. But then he allowed Langford to go past him far too easily on the 500-600 straight. He could have forced Langford further out and prevented the overtaking by moving up to Aman’s shoulder. Luckily for Bosse, Langford’s energy ran out in the 600-700 bend and Bosse managed to pass him on the inside when other athletes ahead of him sprinted away much faster than Langford did. If Langford had been able to keep up with the others in the 600-700 bend Bosse would have been in trouble on the final straight.

Heat 3

This was a relatively fast heat with only six contestants, so there were really no tactics at all.

Heat 4

Kupers set a fast pace, so not much tactics in this heat either. Lewandowski fell back to fifth place in the sprint, but it is not due to any tactical mistakes. It does not look like he was close enough to close the gap on the inside where Lopez comes through in the final 40 meters.

Heat 5

This was an impressive tactical run by Kszczot. He patiently stayed in his boxed position up to 500m and quickly overtook van Rensburg when he seemed to be slower than the others on the 500-600 straight. Kszczot could have moved out before the final bend, but he returned back to the inside lane and got slightly boxed again before finding a suitable gap outward just when the final straight began. He won’t be able to pass out of boxed positions so easily in the semifinals, but in this first round heat this conservative tactic worked perfectly.

Heat 6

Rimmer did everything right in this heat. Instead of staying in an outside position in the 400-500 bend he turned inward, reaching an advantageous position in lane 1 behind the two favorites Rudisha and Balla. As the favorites led the sprint Rimmer clearly managed to save more energy than his evenly matched opponents Kuciapski and Bube, who ran the outside route. But in the end it just wasn’t enough as Rimmer lost the sprint not only to the two favorites he had been following, but also to Rotich, who covered more distance on the outside in the final lap.