Author Archives: Thomas Carlsson

Ordinary knowledge

The forefathers of libertarian thought, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek, wrote illuminating defenses of markets in their war of words against socialism and state planning in the early 20th century. At the center of their analysis was the spontaneous economic order created by the separate actions of individuals as they make choices in the marketplace. They argued that the ordinary knowledge of regular citizens could be pooled in the market and lead to a better result than any central decrees based on expert knowledge. von Mises and Hayek were not the first to articulate this idea, but they certainly surpassed their predecessors in both clarity and depth.

Orthodox libertarianism has fought a losing battle in most developed countries for a long time now, for good reasons. Even though markets are accepted as necessary mechanisms in modern society, few people consider them sufficient in themselves. The state must intervene to keep preserve equality and to keep the market from “failing”. Most discussions of market failure and state intervention seem to be based on a shallow understanding  of the dichotomy between ordinary knowledge and expert knowledge. Market failure results when ordinary knowledge is misinformed. State intervention is justified if its experts are better informed.

However, the importance and value of ordinary knowledge does not nowadays seem to get much attention beyond questions of market regulation. In this essay I will discuss ordinary knowledge from a few different perspectives and try to sort out a few preliminary ideas about its applicability in political decision-making. Continue reading

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Tacit politics

Philosophical descriptions of knowledge rarely contribute to the development of new knowledge. Scientists normally do research without analyzing the presuppositions and methodologies of scientific research. Each branch has an implicit understanding of valid methods and arguments, which is taught to students and redefined bit by bit each time a paper passes peer review. Such interactions are prescriptive even though prescriptions aren’t written down as an explicit set of rules.

Philosophical analyses of scientific knowledge, on the other hand, are descriptive but not prescriptive. They usually describe the presuppositions and methods of scientific inquiry. The philosophical interest lies in following the roots of rational knowledge as deep down as possible. Philosophy comes closest to prescription in questions of demarcation when science is to be separated from non-scientific (or pseudo-scientific) forms of inquiry. A philosophical analysis can be good for proscribing such forms.

Much the same considerations apply to political knowledge and its philosophical description. A philosophical analysis of political knowledge is descriptive, not prescriptive. I can philosophize about the forms of knowledge various political actors possess, but my theories will give no advice or guidance for practicing politicians on how they can improve their political knowledge. And if we want to distinguish between political and non-political forms of knowledge, we immediately ascend (or descend, if you prefer) to the level of philosophy. Only by philosophical analysis can we hope the demarcate political knowledge from related forms of knowledge such as social science and public opinion.

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Leadership of old

Modern theories of government relish the idea of well-informed leadership. Leaders are expected to make decisions based on correct factual knowledge.  A whole industry of fact-producing institutions has been established to gather and publish societal information: reports, articles and statistics of various kinds. The leader’s task is then to assimilate selected bits of this information and put it to constructive use in the game of politics so that society may be steered in the direction that he or she deems beneficial. Even though the information-processing capacity of one person is very limited and most of the available information may be inaccurate, the ideal remains.

Yet factual and scientific knowledge of society is limited and incomplete, as I strive to show in my other essays. System effects disturb assumptions about simple cause-effect relationships, statistics reflect presuppositions rather than reality and surveys produce inconsistent results with disputable results. In short, there’s a gap between the ideal of informed government and the actual knowledge base which stands at its disposal. Only a part of societal information can be considered “true” in a meaningful sense. This state of affairs will be elaborated in more detail in future essays, but in this one it leads me to this question: assuming for the moment that factual knowledge (i.e. scientific knowledge, objective knowledge) can only play a limited role as a guide for governmental decisions, what other forms of knowledge play a part in political decision-making?

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Other things not being equal

In my previous essay Proven politics I explained how political science (at least one version of it) takes the path of least resistance in working out supposedly scientific information on political systems. The assumption that political systems can be considered so independent of society that they are amenable to mathematical analysis is so egregious, and the quantified variables so artificial, that no conclusions reached by these methods can be convincing. The philosophical justification for this form of political science is very weak and its aspirations for exactness and objectivity reveal a seriously misguided view of social phenomena.

However, we can’t entirely discount the possibility that ceteris paribus (all other things being equal) assumptions could be formulated for political science with a greater measure of philosophical cogency and plausibility. After all, it’s a question of degrees. A very strong assumption, like the one I discussed in Proven politics, legitimates even quantitative analysis in principle. But the results of that analysis are only as plausible as the assumption itself is.

Weaker assumptions which recognize that each political system is to some extent idiosyncratic do not legitimate any quantitative analysis but may be fruitful for qualitative comparisons. The analysis is more plausible although its conclusions have to be more modest. In this essay I will discuss how weaker but philosophically justifiable all-other-things-equal assumptions can yield tentative conclusions about the nature of political systems.

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Proven politics

My favorite dictionary defines science as “The observation, identification, description, experimental investigation, and theoretical explanation of phenomena”. This seems like an excellent summary to me, especially because it makes no reference to “the” scientific method. An inquiry which incorporates all five of those elements is undoubtedly a science, but many forms of precise inquiry lack some of them. They key factor is experimentation. If there’s no experiment to rely on, then observations, identifications, descriptions and explanations must be built on a much weaker base.

Concepts like “knowledge” and  ”truth”  become very fuzzy when controlled experimentation is impossible, but that doesn’t necessarily imply that it would be impossible to distinguish between good and bad methods of investigation. It just requires a broader critical perspective on ceteris paribus (“all other things being equal”) conditions, the key element of controlled investigation. In order to observe and describe a limited part of reality precisely, all other things must be held equal.

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